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Anbound

To predict what China’s economic growth will be like in 2018, one might simply extrapolate from the downward linear progression of China’s macro-economy in recent years. It is apparent that the economic growth has been decreasing for the most part in the last decade or so, and only a fraction of the statistical data indicates an increase in economic growth. Even from the perspective of the global market, things do not look very bright for China’s economic growth in 2018.

Andrew Afanasiev

Head of Strategy and Integration Advisory

Sergey Trofimov

Head of Corporate Finance and M&A Advisory

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In Russia, efficiency improvement becomes key growth driver; banking sector, consumer demand start recovering with more to come.Headline growth figures may still be unimpressive, but leading indicators show rising investment and business activity, while consumption is finally starting to recover.

Faruque Hasan

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Since technological advancement would be a new horizon of opportunities for all the partners in the global fashion supply chain, there needs to be a collaborative approach between buyers and suppliers supported by the government and development partners so that it creates a win-win situation for all.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

In this discontented year of 2017, either a disastrous economic crisis or a reshuffle in the US share market will occur. Investors should remain vigilant and cautious in the coming turbulent times.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

To break the current economic deadlock, government leaders should cooperate on a pragmatic level to solve the problem of oversupply, and eliminating poverty is one common goal to work towards. Governments should seriously consider the redistribution of wealth to change the trend of populism that will only create more uncertainty in the political and economic climate and shake up the economy for at least the next decade.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

The RCEP is of great significance for China because the nation has been excluded from the TPP. China needs to promote the conclusion of the RCEP negotiations and be prepared for India’s withdrawal from it.

He Jun

Anbound Senior Researcher

ANBOUND

Once Xiong’an New Area begins construction work, the entire economic landscape of Northern China might have to undergo a transformation and ancient Beijing may also have to face unprecedented changes.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

China has many shortcomings in the global arena, and has we all know, any shortcoming may prevent a structure from performing its full function.

He Jun

Senior Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

For the past 14 years, revitalisation has failed not because of the lack of elements or resources, but rather because of the problems in the concepts, ideas, and reforms. Therefore, the thinking needs to change, there needs to be a focus on the core issues, and painful decision needs to be made to reform the communities’ thinking, the state-owned enterprises, and the government. Lastly, we should be committed to making policies that are in line with the market economy. Only then can we achieve a real breakthrough in the revitalisation of northeast China’s economy.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

The difference in China’s and Russia’s attitudes towards Snowden is not simply a matter of diplomacy, rather, it concerns these two world powers’ ranking and position in the intelligence community.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

If the DPRK’s current leaders insist on their current methods and policy, the best option for China is to see North Korea and North Korea’s leaders as two separate entities.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

China should enhance investment in the US, either through greenfield investment or mergers and acquisitions, so as to create employment opportunities, which is exactly what Trump promised during his campaign and what he would like to see.China also needs to refine the environment and service for US investment in the country, especially in terms of further opening the country’s market.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

Anbound’s chief researcher Chen Gong believes that the current international situation has shifted from the unipolar world to a multi-polar one. First, the European Union is now sufficient to counter the power of the United States. Second, with the rise of protectionism in the United States, Donald Trump becomes the President of the United States, and the United States is less of the "world police" now.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Concerning China’s possible trade conflicts, the Chinese market’s attention is generally concentrated in the United States, especially on the Trump administration that might take tougher stand on China. However, the risk of trade disputes from Europe is not small.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

On March 15, the Federal Reserve of the United States raises the interest rate, which means the United States has entered the rate hike cycle. Is the market generally concerned about whether the world has entered a different era of contraction with the past?

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Once the land space is insufficient, traffic congestion, high population density and other issues will naturally appear. To some extent, the solution of these urban problems should be based on the comprehensive city carrying capacity.
中国特色社会主义的新时代
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第一智库时间 1Think Times
从宏观上看债务是个负担,是个窟窿,是个包袱,是个发展中的问题;但从微观角度看,债务有积极意义。 现在的GDP规模、资产规模、资本过剩程度、央行释放货币、债务规模、债券市场规模等都比过去大很多,中国与世界均是如此,现在的债券市场和债务工具的运用,与过去有很大不同。这种趋势下,与债务规模相比,债务体系的稳定运行、交易畅通才是政策部门更需要关注的重点。
稳就业仍是国内的头等大事。9月18日,国家发展改革委新闻发言人孟玮介绍,受中美经贸摩擦和经济下行压力等因素影响,我国就业结构性矛盾有所上升,部分行业招聘需求有所下降,稳就业面临一定压力。孟玮表示,国家发展改革委将会同相关部门认真实施就业优先战略,进一步完善应对举措,多管齐下稳定和扩大就业。
今年以来更大规模减税降费政策已陆续落地显效。9月19日,财政部副部长许宏才表示,全年减税降费规模可能超过年初预计的2万亿元。企业受益的同时,财政收入增幅明显放缓,一些地方财政收支紧张。在这种情况下,更要加强预算绩效管理,把钱用在刀刃上。把低效无效资金省出来用于急需的领域,提高财政资金使用效益。
中国内地上市企业业绩表现较为低迷。2019年上半年,中国大陆上市的3583家非金融企业利润同比减少2.5%。出现亏损或利润下滑的企业占46%,较上年恶化了10个百分点。除了汽车和零售等最终消费相关行业外,一直以来对经济构成支撑的房地产行业的利润增长率也出现放缓。下半年,中国经济面临的内外部环境更为严峻,上市企业业绩预计难以取得较快复苏。
9月18日,美联储再次降息,以帮助维持创纪录的经济扩张,但暗示进一步下调借贷成本的门槛提高,引发美国总统特朗普迅速而尖锐的批评,反映了美国政府与美联储对美国经济前景的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔指出,美国经济前景“良好”,称决定降息是为了“防范当前的风险”,包括全球经济增长疲弱和贸易紧张局势再度抬头。鲍威尔表示,围绕利率路径和经济前景“存在很多不确定性”。
美国货币市场利率罕见地在月中飙升,暗示银行系统遭遇俗称“美元荒”的流动性紧张。美联储9月18日再向美国银行系统注入750亿美元资金,在一定程度上恢复了市场秩序。此前在银行间拆借市场出现流动性极度紧缺,一度推动美联储的指标利率自金融危机以来首次升越目标区间。这让人感觉到或证实了市场的部分疑虑,即美联储无法控制其目标政策利率。
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