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Anbound

To predict what China’s economic growth will be like in 2018, one might simply extrapolate from the downward linear progression of China’s macro-economy in recent years. It is apparent that the economic growth has been decreasing for the most part in the last decade or so, and only a fraction of the statistical data indicates an increase in economic growth. Even from the perspective of the global market, things do not look very bright for China’s economic growth in 2018.

Andrew Afanasiev

Head of Strategy and Integration Advisory

Sergey Trofimov

Head of Corporate Finance and M&A Advisory

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In Russia, efficiency improvement becomes key growth driver; banking sector, consumer demand start recovering with more to come.Headline growth figures may still be unimpressive, but leading indicators show rising investment and business activity, while consumption is finally starting to recover.

Faruque Hasan

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Since technological advancement would be a new horizon of opportunities for all the partners in the global fashion supply chain, there needs to be a collaborative approach between buyers and suppliers supported by the government and development partners so that it creates a win-win situation for all.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

In this discontented year of 2017, either a disastrous economic crisis or a reshuffle in the US share market will occur. Investors should remain vigilant and cautious in the coming turbulent times.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

To break the current economic deadlock, government leaders should cooperate on a pragmatic level to solve the problem of oversupply, and eliminating poverty is one common goal to work towards. Governments should seriously consider the redistribution of wealth to change the trend of populism that will only create more uncertainty in the political and economic climate and shake up the economy for at least the next decade.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

The RCEP is of great significance for China because the nation has been excluded from the TPP. China needs to promote the conclusion of the RCEP negotiations and be prepared for India’s withdrawal from it.

He Jun

Anbound Senior Researcher

ANBOUND

Once Xiong’an New Area begins construction work, the entire economic landscape of Northern China might have to undergo a transformation and ancient Beijing may also have to face unprecedented changes.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

China has many shortcomings in the global arena, and has we all know, any shortcoming may prevent a structure from performing its full function.

He Jun

Senior Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

For the past 14 years, revitalisation has failed not because of the lack of elements or resources, but rather because of the problems in the concepts, ideas, and reforms. Therefore, the thinking needs to change, there needs to be a focus on the core issues, and painful decision needs to be made to reform the communities’ thinking, the state-owned enterprises, and the government. Lastly, we should be committed to making policies that are in line with the market economy. Only then can we achieve a real breakthrough in the revitalisation of northeast China’s economy.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

The difference in China’s and Russia’s attitudes towards Snowden is not simply a matter of diplomacy, rather, it concerns these two world powers’ ranking and position in the intelligence community.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

If the DPRK’s current leaders insist on their current methods and policy, the best option for China is to see North Korea and North Korea’s leaders as two separate entities.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

China should enhance investment in the US, either through greenfield investment or mergers and acquisitions, so as to create employment opportunities, which is exactly what Trump promised during his campaign and what he would like to see.China also needs to refine the environment and service for US investment in the country, especially in terms of further opening the country’s market.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

Anbound’s chief researcher Chen Gong believes that the current international situation has shifted from the unipolar world to a multi-polar one. First, the European Union is now sufficient to counter the power of the United States. Second, with the rise of protectionism in the United States, Donald Trump becomes the President of the United States, and the United States is less of the "world police" now.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Concerning China’s possible trade conflicts, the Chinese market’s attention is generally concentrated in the United States, especially on the Trump administration that might take tougher stand on China. However, the risk of trade disputes from Europe is not small.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

On March 15, the Federal Reserve of the United States raises the interest rate, which means the United States has entered the rate hike cycle. Is the market generally concerned about whether the world has entered a different era of contraction with the past?

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Once the land space is insufficient, traffic congestion, high population density and other issues will naturally appear. To some extent, the solution of these urban problems should be based on the comprehensive city carrying capacity.
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第一智库时间 1Think Times
从最近公布的一系列宏观数据来看,中国经济随着从去年年底实施的一系列宏观政策效果的逐渐消退,又呈现出回调的趋势。这也表明了中国经济的新的内生动力仍然较弱,同时支持经济增长的传统因素也在熄火。今年经济下行的压力比此前预期的要严重,恐怕要做好形势转坏的打算。除了国内问题,外部环境还存在很大的不确定性,需要对今年的中国经济下行趋势提高警戒。
全球政治在某种程度上就是交易,只不过有的时候交易的是利益,然而在一些特殊的时刻或是节点,整体利益格局和秩序可能会被置于次要位置,这个时候政治交易的就是公众情绪和公众情感。互联网时代的社会,需要的不仅仅是政治,政治很多时候都与利益相关,可一旦利益的格局和秩序出现裂痕的时候,政治的利益基础就会失稳,这种时候更有效的是正确的公关策略。
人民银行将于6月26日在香港发行200亿元1个月期和100亿元6个月期人民币央行票据。此前,人民银行已三次在港发行人民币央票。与前三次相比,本月即将发行的人民币央票期限缩短,且发行量增加。分析人士认为,缩短期限,可在有效调节短期离岸市场人民币流动性的同时,不至于对离岸市场人民币流动性总量造成持久的影响。
当地时间6月18日,德国总理默克尔的健康状况引发各界的高度关注。在当前复杂的国际形势下,默克尔总理的健康状况是个敏感问题,德国是欧洲的核心国家,也是欧元区的核心国家。在中美贸易战背景下,中德合作具有重要意义,是构建“1+3”经贸格局的重要支撑。如果默克尔因健康状况而退出,不仅会对欧洲及美欧博弈造成显著的影响,还会对中德合作产生不可忽略的影响。
国际房地产服务商戴德梁行6月18日发布的数据显示,受中美贸易战影响,来自中国内地的资金持续紧缩,自去年第三季以来,成交额10亿港元以上的大额物业成交中,中资占比为零;同时香港本地投资者也采取持平态度。与此同时,包括主权基金等在内的机构投资者趋于活跃,积极在港寻找写字楼的投资机会。
多位业内人士表示,目前部分中小银行和非银机构流动性面临一定压力,但市场整体流动性合理充裕。全球多个国家货币政策转向宽松为我国货币政策调整创造了空间。下一步,稳健的货币政策将会确保市场流动性合理充裕,并凸显结构性特征,边际定向宽松的可能性或高于全面宽松。未来,针对部分银行的定向降准仍有一定空间。
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