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Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

With the Chinese economy showing more signs of stabilizing, in the end of the third quarter the real estate policy will be tighten up with the rising housing prices curbed to a certain extent. We believe that the property market regulation will continue to play a certain effect in the short term, but the Chinese property market prevailed with debt and leverage should not cause systemic risk; long-term mitigation risk policy should be studied and planned. The real estate market regulation should be multi-pronged, and comprehensive policy should be implemented. First of all, in terms of monetary policy, the interest rate can be considered a tool to increase the transaction costs of speculative buyers. Secondly, the government can provide targeted low-cost housing and housing security for the poor to rent. Thirdly, impose different treatments in loan policy of the hotspot cities and third or fourth-tier cities. Fourthly, land finance alternatives should be sought. Fifthly, there should be an increase in the effective supply of land.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

From the perspective of China"s global geopolitics, the distant South America has become an important area for China"s foreign strategic cooperation. So, what are China"s strategic interests in South America? Some pointed out it is oil, others said it is China-South America geopolitical relations, while some said trade and markets. However, Anbound Think Tank believes that with the sharp drop in international oil prices, South America undoubtedly does not have a special advantage. South America is still the "backyard of the United States," and it will never become "China"s backyard", therefore geopolitical strategic interests cannot be reflected. This coupled with the collapse of Brazil"s and Venezuela"s economy, South American trade and market influence is also declining. Based on the current situation in China and around the world, China needs objectively re- assess its strategic interests in South America, to provide a rational analysis and support for decision-making in the future.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Recently, Huawei actively consider investing in areas other than of Shenzhen, which has attracted the market"s attention. According to reports, due to the high prices of real estate in Shenzhen and Shanghai, Huawei will set up a number of world-class R & D bases in Jiangsu. Ren Zhengfei, the President of Huawei Technologies had previously publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the high real estate prices in Shenzhen. For some cities that attach importance to industrial development (especially manufacturing), it must be borne in mind that real estate price is an important competitive force for industrial cities; if the city is mainly engaged in the service sector, it can raise real estate prices moderately; if it is manufacturing industry, the real estate prices should be curbed. If the city value short-term gains from real estate, and vigorously pushed up prices, that would be disastrous to all industries.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman has expressed his anger on leverage company buy-outs by some asset managers, which has caused no small response from the market, and this might also lead to some policy and regulatory adjustments. Anbound Think Tank research team believes that the market should reflect on this incident. Firstly, the recovery and functional reconstruction should be the priority of the current stock market in China, and this cannot be undermined. Secondly, any further exposure of the contradiction between the divisions of industry supervision may affect the future financial regulatory reform. Thirdly, regulators of the stock market show a high degree of concern, and this has to do with the development of Renminbi demand market under the background of capital surplus. Fourthly, the future of securities market regulation may change.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Because many Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are no longer satisfied with the domestic market share, many of them in the overseas attempt to carry out internationalization, but the business acquisitions of Chinese enterprises in the European and American markets have caused a lot of business, and experienced obstructions from the related administrative authorities. Anbound Think Tank research team believes that, on the one hand it may be that the foreign media or scholars seek more personal interests by sensationalizing the Chinese issues, yet on the other hand it could be Chinese enterprises and institutions in overseas have not done enough on local people and media. It should also be acknowledged that some Chinese capital acquisitions in the overseas are facing many serious problems; many of the enterprises do not understand local culture or do not follow local rules and regulations, resulting in the failure of acquisitions. These issues require the Chinese government and Chinese enterprises to improve their communications and responses in overseas markets.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council recently have issued a guideline on better protection of property rights. Anbound Think Tank believes that the two types of land that should be focused on are urban residential construction land and farmers" house sites. Residential land use rights may be renewed for free or renewed for a fee. Free renewal is a bold reform, while the renewal for a fee will be subject to certain oppositions; the implementation of the "free renewal + real estate tax" appears to be a more feasible institutional arrangements. For farmers’ house site reform, Anboun Think Tank has long suggested that these sites should be given decades of long-term use rights, allowing the right to use these transactions in the market to attract urban capital to rural areas to participate in construction.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

There are two "anchors" of Renminbi exchange rate, one is currency basket, and the other is US dollar. However, now the market is still concerned about the dollar. In this regard, the Chinese Central Bank has finally made a formal statement on the Renminbi exchange rate, highlighting the exchange of Renminbi against the currency basket is experiencing significant appreciation. We believe that previous the Central Bank did not reserves of foreign exchange to "confront" with the market, and that is a good short-term strategy, yet for investors who intend to preserve and increase the value of their assets, it would not be wise. Under the mechanism of "closing price + currency basket”, the Central Bank tolerated Renminbi exchange rate’s relatively long-term devaluation, yet that costs losses in foreign exchange reserves, making the market unable to clear for long-term.

Zhong Wei

ANBOUND

After Brexit, Europe’s political situation and the stability of its financial system have been the biggest concern of the global market. According to Anbound Think Tank economist Professor Zhong Wei, the current global economy is a four-cornered competition between Europe, the United States, Japan and China, and certainly one of them would be the first to fall down. Currently, the United States and China enjoy relatively stable social and economic conditions, while Japan is declining due to its debt issues. Yet, the fall of Europe might be sudden. Now there are problems in the financial system of Germany and Italy, while next year France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands will be having general elections and the situation could change. It can be said that the largest eye of storm for global economy is in Europe.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

In the past 30 years, China"s economic and social construction has made great progress; the country was almost completely paralyzed during the Cultural Revolution, but has now recovered and become the second largest economy in the world. However, Anbound Think Tank"s chief researcher Chen Gong believes that now China’s economic and political situations have reached an unprecedented complexity, and there is an urgent need for further reform, yet the reform’s strategic thinking and method should be redesigned, particularly in handling issues like promoting new economic impetus, narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, social stability, environmental governance, reducing debt levels and others. The experimental, slow and pragmatic reform should no longer be continued.

Anbound Research Team

ABNOUND

The armed conflict on November 20 between the armed ethnic groups and the government forces in northern Myanmar not only poses serious obstacles to the peace process vigorously promoted by the new government of Myanmar, but also posed a great threat to the security of the China-Myanmar border. Anbound Think Tank"s research team believes that facing the repetitive conflicts in northern Myanmar, China should consider establishing a security zone to shelter and protect the refugees and at the same time showcasing China’s ability in handling complicated regional issues. The security zone should be protected by the Chinese military forces. Except for the leaders of the security zone, all parties in the civil war in Myanmar are not allowed to plan and engage in various military operations in the security zone, so as to effectively protect the lives and property of the ordinary people in the areas concerned and to prevent the unnecessary damages caused by Myanmar’s civil war.

Anbound Research Team

Malaysia

ANBOUND

On 4 November, at a meeting of the House of Representatives (Dewan Rakyat), Malaysia’s opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) Member of Parliament Nga Kor Ming questioned the Ministry of Transport on its awarding of the 600km East Coast Rail Line (ECRL) project to the China Communications Construction Company Ltd (CCCC), despite the fact that the latter is on the list of companies “debarred from engaging in business dealings.”Anbound Think Tank is of the opinion that Malaysian citizens should not be misled by the so-called “blacklisting” of CCCC, and should instead gain a clearer understanding of the rules behind the blacklisting of companies. In total, there are 910 companies on the World Bank’s blacklist, among which 44 are Chinese companies. In order to look out for its own interests, an economy will draw up more and more “blacklists” to deal with companies that do not advance its own interests. As an emerging economy, if Malaysia were to blindly follow these blacklists and neglect its own developmental needs, instead of evaluate prospective business partner organisations from other angles, it will miss out on many more opportunities for collaboration.

Foo Loke Min

Chief Representative of Anbound Malaysia

ANBOUND

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib paid an official visit to China from 31 October to 6 November. This was Najib’s third visit to China since he took office as Prime Minister in 2009.First Think Tank interviewed the Chief Representative of Anbound (Malaysia), Dr. Edward Foo, on the economic development in Malaysia over the next two years, relations between Malaysia and China, the 2017 General Elections in Malaysia, issues related to Islam, and the topic of Chinese companies investing in Malaysia.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic commodity futures market (coal, steel, plastics, from zinc, aluminium, sugar, cotton) is also seeing strong rise, while the market is generally concerned about the main factors affecting the commodity market and commodity market trend next year. In this regard, Anbound research team concludes that China"s economic condition and Donald Trump winning the presidential election are the two recent major factors impacting commodity market trends. In the next year, the rise of China’s domestic coal and steel prices is limited, and the international market, the crude oil market’s bearish condition is more intense while the industrial commodity market is unlikely to continue the price hike. The long-term trend will be depending on more clear signals delivered by the Trump administration’s economic and trade policies.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

The weakness of China"s manufacturing industry this year has been the concern of world and of China"s different communities. What will be in store for China"s industry, especially the development of the manufacturing industry? After conducting researches on this issue, Anbound’s chief researcher Chen Gong pointed out that China"s manufacturing industry in a huge transitional process; one third of the manufacturing industry has successfully transformed, one third is working on achieving transformation and another one third has yet to achieve it. Cost factor and technical vision are the two main factors to promote the transformation of the manufacturing industry; in the future the government and its policies should stabilize the part of manufacturing industry that has already transformed, promote the part that are still struggling to transform and effectively manage the rest of the industry that has yet to transform.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

On November 14 evening, the State Council issued a notice on the local government debt risk contingency plan, putting forward specific requirements and methods in handling local government debts. After studying the content of the notice, Anbound suggests there are three points needed to be grasped. First, the Central Government will not be responsible on local debts; second, the local government will have to bear the responsibility of the local debts; third, plans are putting forward for the fiscal reorganization of the local governments. The notice indicates a new era of local debt supervision, where the local governments must understand the situation and change the way of thinking while shifting the focus to utilizing social capital, and at the same time attach importance to the development of environmental construction to adapt to new developments.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

There are several great changes for the global economic and capital market this year, and many of them are unexpected. The developments of political landscape of Europe and of the United States are the signs of the decline of globalization; different parts of the world, including in China are experiencing new waves of urbanization, which intertwine with overcapacity and economic crisis. According to Donald Trump"s economic policies, global capital will flow in huge quantity to the United States debt arbitrage, which will further increase the China’s pressure of capital outflow and currency devaluation; meanwhile Europe and Japan do not show strong signs of economic recovery. All parties should pay attention on the developments and changes and develop plans to respond to risks in advance.
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第一智库时间 1Think Times
西方的多轮制裁已深刻冲击俄罗斯经济,对俄不动产市场造成巨大的负面影响。不少俄罗斯民众的挂牌房产长期无人问津,即使是莫斯科这样的核心城市也是如此。在去年年底,不少房产的成交价跌回到了10年前。不动产市场是一国整体经济的重要指标,俄首都不动产持续下跌,其负面影响不言而喻。
中国要真正成为依靠科技创新发展的国家,需要构建有利于科技创新人才发展的环境和机制。国家之间的竞争集中体现为企业之间的竞争,企业之间的竞争集中体现为产品之间的竞争。从成功国家的经验看,以企业而非以科研院所为主体的创新体系,是培养和支持创新型人才的最佳土壤。
日本前首相安倍晋三遇刺后,遗留了一本回忆录书稿。在书中,安倍将对华外交比作下日本将棋,“如果你的对手要夺走你的金将,你必须夺走他们的飞车或角行”。他表示,如果日方想要让中国改变对待日本的强势态度,自己和自民党就必须“不断的赢得选举,让中国认为安倍政权会持续很长时间”。他不讳言,他觉得日本一直在展开这样的心理战。
尽管中国防疫政策已经转向,各类国际旅行活动规模已经明显回升。但受疫情期间特别措施的约束,中美两国在取消航班上限问题上仍处于僵局。自中美两国间的航班数量仍被限制在每周12班。两国政府近期正进行密切磋商,试图取消这一限制。但在近期的“流浪气球”事件之下,中美紧张的地缘政治关系导致相关磋商迟迟未能达成协议。
华兴资本实控人失联,在国内资本市场引起巨大震动。实际上,在中国的金融投资业,所有的人都没有原始积累,除了依靠国际资本,一大部分都是直接或间接依靠的国有金融资本。因此,只要整顿国有金融资本,那么这些曾在风口或曾经在风口上的企业家、投资家、“有钱人”,很可能都难脱干系。
中国证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点,将采取差异化监管政策。试点基金产品投资者首轮实缴出资不低于1000万元,且以机构投资者为主;自然人投资者合计出资金额不得超过基金实缴金额的20%;不动产私募投资基金首轮实缴募集资金规模不得低于3000万元;鼓励境外投资者以QFLP(合格境外有限合伙人)方式投资基金。
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