Anbound Research Team
ANBOUND
With the rise of isolationism and the spread of anti-globalization, history is repeating itself. The West is rather worry about Donald Trump being elected as the President of the United States, and does not wish the United States to withdraw from the current international political and economic system established after the end of World War II. What does this change mean for China? Anbound research team"s analysis shows that firstly China’s geopolitical environment has improved and overall the situation will be more relaxed for China. Secondly, China faces a development opportunity that lasts for at least five years. Thirdly, China’s economic and financial influence will allow it to gain more influence in regional cooperation. Fourthly, China may face greater pressure on trade and investment in the United States. Fifthly, China’s core problem is to solve the problem of internal development.
Anbound Research Team
ANBOUND
With capital surplus, a considerable number of financial resources from the real economy, the problems of illegal financing and debt of the local governments are emerging. Regarding this, Anbound research team believes that to solve the local financing problems, the focus should guiding social capital into the market system to encourage private enterprises as the core to develop consortium economy. Other than that, there should be further standardization of standardize the local debt management and financing platform and strengthening financing platform for the audit and debt recognition, as well as speeding up the platform of the company"s market transformation to realize credit stripping with the government.
Anbound Research Team
ANBOUND
Recently, various departments in China have introduced policies to suppress real estate bubble. For the hot-spots in the first and second tier cities where the Central Government is unable to control the property price, the local party and government officials will directly start the accountability mechanism. The Department of Land and Resources is responsible for land market management and land supply increase, while the Central Bank is curbing the expansion of the asset bubbles by adjusting the credit policy. Anbound research team believes that the decision-making authority’s concern on the problems caused by property price’s grim trend has increased to the level of stabilizing the situation, and this has also become a major political and economic issue before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Taking into account the current round of property market inflation is largely due to policy stimulus, following the introduction of controlling combination measures like expansion of supply, strengthening of regulatory and tightening of credit, it is likely that the property price increase in the hot-spots of first and second tier cities will be contained, but whether this will reverse the market’s expectation is depending on the market players and government regulations.
Anbound Research Team
ANBOUND
The Chinese economic statistics for the month of October have been partially released, and the statistics show that the economy demonstrates the feature of stabilization. Based on field research, Anbound research team concludes that if everything goes well, the economy in the fourth quarter could be better than what have been expected, with annual growth likely to exceed 6.7% and reach 6.8% or even higher, yet there are still several challenges. The investment growth has accelerated while private investment has rebounded slightly; at the same time industrial added value growth is lower than expected, the total growth rate of social retail sales fell slightly to less than what had been expected. These signs show that this year’s economic growth is increasingly relying on investments, while the macro-policies should show greater effects under lesser policy leeway.
Chen Gong
Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank
ANBOUND
As Renminbi’s exchange rate goes further lower, the onshore, offshore and middle exchange rate has declined. Earlier, Anbound research team’s analysis shows that from the macro-economic and policy trend, Renminbi is facing long-term devaluation factor against the US Dollar, but China should try to avoid short-term devaluation of the Renminbi exchange rate. Anbound’s chief researcher Chen Gong has also suggested that under the overall situation of excess capital, China should take a variety of measures with the top priority being issuing bonds to support consumption and investment to effectively stimulate the demand for Renminbi while consuming excess capital and at the same time attract foreign investment to the domestic market to stabilize Renminbi’s exchange rate.
Chen Gong
Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank
ANBOUND
The victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election has caused much discussion, and people are bombarded with information. Anbound's senior researcher Chen Gong points out that the Chinese market and public opinion should not follow this trend as this will only chase the capital away while not bringing any benefit to the Chinese market. President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump the soonest, and he has the reasons and conditions to do so. While the world thinks Trump’s victory will be advantageous to China, and many countries are getting closer to China, yet the Chinese public opinion seems to be thinking the otherwise
Xenia Wickett
Head, US and the Americas Programme; Dean, The Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs
Chatham House
America’s new president has won the vote of a disunited country and a distrustful electorate - making it extraordinarily difficult for him to govern effectively with any real mandate. This election has made stark the deep divisions laced through the US. These have always existed - but this incendiary campaign has further stoked them.Trump may be celebrating now – but his greatest tests lie ahead.
RAND experts
Rand Corporation
The incoming administration will face multiple national security challenges.One of these Challenges is the relationship between China and America. RAND experts have researched this national security concern and lay out some of the key issues.The United States faces an acute strategic dilemma: a U.S.-China relationship characterized by a complex mix of competition and cooperation and plagued by mutual suspicion and distrust. A RAND project tracked past developments and predictions of the future to produce a scorecard comparing U.S. and Chinese military forces.Moreover, Rand also provides some advice about policy issues.
Chen Gong
Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank
ANBOUND
China"s management of its foreign exchange (forex) reserves is expected to shift steadily toward a "new normal" state, and a decline in reserves may be seen in the coming years.For decades China used its forex reserves mainly for financial investment in order to avoid a decline in their overall value, but now there are signs that it is using the reserves to back up its external policy strategy.
Chen Gong
Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank
ANBOUND
Abe was re-elected as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in early September.There will perhaps not be fundamental changes in Abe’s economic policies, known as Abenomics, in his next presidential term.One of the major objectives of Abenomics is monetary policy easing.There is a risk of large-scale capital outflows when the authorities ease monetary policy to pump liquidity into the market, so the Japanese economy may not benefit from monetary easing. Abenomics could have a far-reaching impact on neighboring countries.we cannot rule out the possibility that tensions between China and Japan will escalate in the future.
Chen Gong
Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank
ANBOUND
The successful launching of the new type of CZ-5 rocket, the high-tech weapons in Airshow China Expo at Zhuhai and the increasing popularity of the internet; all these show that while certain industries are experiencing difficulties in the midst of economic development in China, other industries are booming. What does this show and what will the future hold? Anbound's senior researcher Chen Gong believes that China is on the eve of the innovation and technological revolution, and has yet to develop maturely; though at the same time, China needs to be aware of Luddite fallacy.
Dr Ahmad Rashid Malik
The writer is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. He is an expert on Japan, China, and East Asian affairs.
Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad
How to make CPEC safe of terrorism is the biggest challenge.The Government should not take the “credit for lesser evils” compared to previous killings.It should take actions against terrorists.There should be no “praise” or “hate- game” as for the role of agencies and law enforcers are concerned.All is good is not a good policy.
Derek Grossman
senior project associate at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He formerly served at the Defense Intelligence Agency as the daily intelligence briefer to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the Pentagon.
Rand Corporation
Beijing’s provocative moves are increasingly threatening to key U.S. allies, causing the United States to respond.
Colin P. Clarke
political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation
Barak Mendelsohn
associate professor at Haverford College and author of “The al-Qaeda Franchise: The Expansion of Al-Qaeda and Its Consequences.”
Rand Corporation
Compared with the Islamic State, al Qaeda can be a more dangerous threat to the United States and the West.Al Qaeda is determined to learn from its past mistakes.The group offers a strong political component, and no longer focuses solely on violence.Al Qaeda"s new focus on building political support has been demonstrated by its efforts to match violence to the local population"s specific regional political objectives. Long after the Islamic State has been degraded as a military threat, there is a real probability that al Qaeda could complete its transformation from a vanguard group into a grass-roots social movement with significant appeal among Sunni Muslims worldwide.That outcome should be the main concern of Western policymakers and government officials focused on counterterrorism.
Charles Wolf, Jr.
Distinguished Chair in International Economics; Senior Economic Adviser; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Rand Corporation
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both suggested free trade has adversely affected jobs and wages in the United States.The opponents of free trade have newly rediscovered “fair trade”—something that, although not clearly defined by the candidates, is implied by them and their campaigns and is presumed to be reconcilable with protecting U.S. jobs and wages.In author"s opinion, fair trade is“Market-Access, Most-Favored-Nation Criterion of Fairness”—that is, assured access by U.S. businesses to markets in partner countries equivalent to access that businesses from partner countries have in U.S. markets.This criterion can be applied to TPP.
Chen Gong
Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank
ANBOUND
Anbound Chief Researcher Chen Gong said that China's economy is now in a "crisis triangle" of "over-urbanization, excess capital and economic crisis." Among these, "excess capital" is a key link and a theoretical framework that explains a number of international and domestic financial market issues. In this regard, Chen Gong suggested, on the one hand, a large number of investments in consumption sector while reducing part of the excess capital. On the other hand, a large number of different types of bond should be issued to expand the bond market to reduce the remaining excess capital.
