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全球博客 Global Blog (中文  English)

Dr John Nilsson-Wright

Senior Research Fellow, Asia Programme

查塔姆研究所

韩国民众对总统的愤怒和不信任不仅针对弹劾案不为人知的细节,也反映韩国开始对自身的政治体制产生怀疑,这可能导致激进的政治变革 ,也可能会对任何未来的韩国领导人提出挑战,他们将必须获得治理所需的信任和合法性。

Dr John Nilsson-Wright

Senior Research Fellow, Asia Programme

Professor Kerry Brown

Associate Fellow, Asia Programme

查塔姆研究所

新的美国总统将极大改变中国和日本的地缘政治态势。日本的外交政策将致力于维持和美国积极友好的关系。而特朗普也会给中国的未来带来极大不确定性,但同时也隐藏了诸多机会。

The Rt Hon Lord Williams of Baglan

Distinguished Visiting Fellow

查塔姆研究所

诸多方面都预示着美国的影响力正在下降。TPP也受到极大阻碍。美国总统奥巴马也许还有机会挽救TPP,但大多数人都不看好它的发展。

Dr Tim SummersSenior

Consulting Fellow, Asia Programme -based in Hong Kong

查塔姆研究所

欣克利角核电站的争论折射出了未来中英关系可能出现的若干问题。在投票离开欧盟后,英国与中国的关系可能比全民投票之前更重要。中英关系将取决于英国和欧盟的关系。未来对中政策会充满不确定性,因为它取决于欧盟的态度。 The debate over the Hinkley Point reactor highlights broader questions over the future of the UK−China relationship. UK relations with China could be even more important than before the referendum.the UK"s approach to China will depend on how relations with the EU pan out. So China policy looks like it will be yet another area of uncertainty for Britain as it extracts itself from the EU.

Dr Sam Geall

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources

查塔姆研究所

十三五计划不仅会塑造全球发展模式,还会决定环境的命运。计划中的创新措施展现了和之前的计划非常不同的模式。计划的实施是否能得到利用和支持,对于实现中国的环境目标以及其创造更具创新性的经济和社会的努力至关重要。 The 13th Five Year Plan will not only shape patterns of global development, but also help determine the fate of the environment. Approaches in the plan to innovation would present a quite different model than previous central government plans have encouraged. Whether in the plan’s implementation they are harnessed and given support might be critical to meeting China’s environmental goals, as well as its drive to create a more innovative economy and society.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

In the past two years, there have been some controversies on the impact of virtual economy on real economy in China. In this regard, the State Council Premier Li Keqiang issues a clear statement that emphasizes online business is new economy, which directly stimulates actual factory sales; courier sector as the representative of new economy has stimulated consumption and promotes production as well. These typical new economic sectors, in fact, are "productive services"; they are not only serving the real economy, but they are also part of the real economy. This position means that the online shops and courier sector are defined as part of the "real economy”.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

After many years of rapid development of the insurance industry, some of the drawbacks are becoming increasingly obvious; last year there was a concentrated outbreak, at the same time, the industry differentiation trend is also becoming more obvious. Anbound think tank research team believes that currently different sectors are exploring to deepen the supply-side reform; insurance companies as an important financial market power related to the stability of the people"s livelihood should adjust its business expansion and innovation ideals to better serve the supply-side reform and China"s consumer society development trend, as well as learning from the consumer-oriented service innovation ideas and practices, in order to conduct product and service innovation under controllable risks. This will be significant for grasping China’s future consumer market.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

During the late Qing Dynasty (late 19th – early 20th centuries), with the introduction of the New Administration reform, there were vigorous "self-governing" movements in many regions in China. In Nantong, South China, there was a rather striking example of self-governing closely related to the businessman Zhang Jian. Zhang Jian emphasized on industrial economy and "village ideology" to promote urban development and social transformation, changing Nantong into China"s first successful "special zone." Although this social practice eventually failed, it achieved successful practice of modern social transformation through local elites, which were the industrialists and gentries under the "self-government consensus" of the people and of the government, and serves as a model for the generations to come.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

Anbound Think Tank’s chief researcher Chen Gong believes that in the future the structure of US-Sino international relations will be comprised of two elements: “global equilibrium” and “local strategy”. “Global equilibrium” refers to the change of global political structure brought about by the adjustment of American geopolitical strategy. The US will carry out strategic shrinkage and focus more on domestic issues, which will balance the power of US and China at the global level. “Local strategy” refers to specific and practical local interests. In Chen Gong’s opinion, it is impossible for Trump to make some concessions to specific interests; rather, the US will play games with China at the local level.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

It is increasingly difficult to avoid issues like the downward pressures continuously felt by the Chinese economy, the continuous decline of the industrial investment, the high cost of business, and the issue of the survival prospects. Anbound Think Tank research team believes that currently Chinese enterprises are facing the issue of high costs, a large part of which is unreasonable fees, as well as institutional costs and monopoly costs. Through reform, this part of the cost can be reduced. As for labor costs, it is a problem that cannot be solved. Overall, the manufacturing industry still needs to transform to capital-intensive manufacturing with extensive use of automation, which in relatively developed areas will show better obvious performance. Therefore, the automation will be the real future industry, and an important equipment manufacturing industry.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

In the past few days, the Renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise. Anbound Think Tank stresses that the fundamental reason for the appreciation of the Renminbi this time is not caused by the suppress measures of China"s Central Bank, but rather by the dollar falling across the board. In addition, more attention should be paid to these trends: the future of the Renminbi exchange rate will remain in a volatile state; US economy and the global market uncertainty will increase after Trump becoming the President; temporarily reverse the Renminbi exchange rate after the passive situation due to the dollar callback; the fall of dollar and the rebound of Renminbi which would cause damage against many renminbi "bears"; a growing strategic view of renewed optimism about emerging market growth.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

China"s supply-side structural reform is a complex system reform; according to the understanding of Anbound Think Tank, the national macro-management department is feels the pressure because of this and it is lacking of the sense of unity and purpose. We believe that the great changes in the entire socio-economic system, from production to consumption, from effective supply to institutional supply, and structural reform on the supply side, will be the overall goal of systemic reform. From production to consumption, to service, management and social security, the earlier we realize the inevitability of this social transformation, the faster we could have clearer direction, and through focusing on our resources and strength, we would be able to do more useful things, rather than those ambiguous ones.

Chen Gong

Chief Researcher, Anbound Think Tank

ANBOUND

A tracking study conducted by the Anbound Think Tank shows that President Obama"s senior adviser John Holdren is preparing a report on restricting the export of China-US joint ventures. Anbound"s chief researcher Chen Gong believes that the US trade war with China will start from the industrial segments; the first industry involved might be the semiconductor industry and this strategy will cause much damage, as it will specifically restrict China’s effort in this key industry. The prospect of trade war between the US and China is becoming increasingly certain. For the Chinese government, it is necessary to pay attention on possible changes in the US-China trade war in the future, and make adequate research and preparation.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

In order to stimulate the private investment vitality and to revitalize the domestic industry, public–private partnership (PPP) has been elevated to a more important position by China"s central government, where PPP asset securitization was promoted through policy. In general, it is beneficial to mobilize social capital to invest in PPP projects and to promote the development of PPP projects. For all kinds of institutional investors, in the context of asset shortage, PPP asset securitization also provides them a new investment channel. Anbound research team believes that there are still a lot of problems to be solved, the most important one being whether it can really stimulate the will of private capital to participate in various types of infrastructure investment; this would require the attention of the regulators, relevant financial institutions and investors.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

On December 30, 2016 morning, Huang Qifan resigned from the position of mayor of Chongqing; on the same day, the Chongqing Real Estate Chamber of Commerce issued a proposal to the Chongqing Municipal Federation of Commerce on the full implementation of commercial housing sales pricing based on by building area. We believe that this matter is a policy challenge to the new leadership of Chongqing, if the real estate business in Chongqing successfully changes the situation, the efforts of the previous policy of housing prices is likely to be wasted. From the perspective of local finance, the suppression of housing prices will of course cause losses, but Chongqing is an industrial city and the property price cannot be too high. The current first-tier cities in China such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are subjected to high property prices, and many industries cannot be maintained there. Chongqing has relatively low property prices, and that is actually to retain the space for urban economic development.

Anbound Research Team

ANBOUND

The Communist Party of China’s Central Committee and State Council has recently released a statement on steadily promoting the reform of rural collective property rights system, where it clearly states that it will complete the collective assets of capital verification in 3 years and cooperative system operating assets reform in 5 years. According to the Anbound research team, there are a lot of progresses in the areas of possession, income, paid exit and inheritance, among which static management is regarded as the most suitable way. But at the same time, due to legal bottlenecks and imperfections in rural land, financial market, mortgages and, guarantees are generally difficult to reflect the situation. Continuous attempts and breakthroughs in the new year will be needed.
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第一智库时间 1Think Times
西方的多轮制裁已深刻冲击俄罗斯经济,对俄不动产市场造成巨大的负面影响。不少俄罗斯民众的挂牌房产长期无人问津,即使是莫斯科这样的核心城市也是如此。在去年年底,不少房产的成交价跌回到了10年前。不动产市场是一国整体经济的重要指标,俄首都不动产持续下跌,其负面影响不言而喻。
中国要真正成为依靠科技创新发展的国家,需要构建有利于科技创新人才发展的环境和机制。国家之间的竞争集中体现为企业之间的竞争,企业之间的竞争集中体现为产品之间的竞争。从成功国家的经验看,以企业而非以科研院所为主体的创新体系,是培养和支持创新型人才的最佳土壤。
日本前首相安倍晋三遇刺后,遗留了一本回忆录书稿。在书中,安倍将对华外交比作下日本将棋,“如果你的对手要夺走你的金将,你必须夺走他们的飞车或角行”。他表示,如果日方想要让中国改变对待日本的强势态度,自己和自民党就必须“不断的赢得选举,让中国认为安倍政权会持续很长时间”。他不讳言,他觉得日本一直在展开这样的心理战。
尽管中国防疫政策已经转向,各类国际旅行活动规模已经明显回升。但受疫情期间特别措施的约束,中美两国在取消航班上限问题上仍处于僵局。自中美两国间的航班数量仍被限制在每周12班。两国政府近期正进行密切磋商,试图取消这一限制。但在近期的“流浪气球”事件之下,中美紧张的地缘政治关系导致相关磋商迟迟未能达成协议。
华兴资本实控人失联,在国内资本市场引起巨大震动。实际上,在中国的金融投资业,所有的人都没有原始积累,除了依靠国际资本,一大部分都是直接或间接依靠的国有金融资本。因此,只要整顿国有金融资本,那么这些曾在风口或曾经在风口上的企业家、投资家、“有钱人”,很可能都难脱干系。
中国证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点,将采取差异化监管政策。试点基金产品投资者首轮实缴出资不低于1000万元,且以机构投资者为主;自然人投资者合计出资金额不得超过基金实缴金额的20%;不动产私募投资基金首轮实缴募集资金规模不得低于3000万元;鼓励境外投资者以QFLP(合格境外有限合伙人)方式投资基金。
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